After the adjustment period of ten years, the trend of Chinese carton industry is becoming clearer

After the adjustment period of ten years, the trend of Chinese carton industry is becoming clearer

  • Categories:Industry News
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  • Time of issue:2016-01-05
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(Summary description)

After the adjustment period of ten years, the trend of Chinese carton industry is becoming clearer

(Summary description)

  • Categories:Industry News
  • Author:
  • Origin:
  • Time of issue:2016-01-05
  • Views:0

During the decade from 2005 to 2015, the carton industry entered a period of adjustment, and the period of "windfall profits" from 1995 to 2005 has gone away from us. In this decade of adjustment period, whether the upstream raw paper industry, downstream end user industry or the carton industry itself has undergone great changes, the carton industry officially entered the "low-profit" era. Especially in the past two years, in the fierce competitive environment, a new round of reshuffle has begun, some of the carton factories due to various factors or choose to close, change or be forced to close, but at the same time, there are enterprises in the industry against the trend of expansion. Can foresee in the next decade, the carton industry will usher in a more intense period of reshuffle, this period of opportunities and challenges coexist.

Upstream raw paper industry: the competition is increasingly white-hot, the main push low gram weight high strength raw paper

Before 2005, corrugated paper used in China's carton factories is generally high quantitative, and high strength corrugated paper very few. Due to the lack of wood pulp and high quality waste paper, many original paper mills are not willing to produce high strength corrugated paper, the general production of low strength corrugated paper, and not large scale. But the end user to the product packaging quality requirements are increasingly improved, at that time, the domestic high strength corrugated paper new projects, can only rely on imports and imports are still growing.

By 2015, the situation has changed dramatically, the situation of supply has long been reversed, overcapacity is now the upstream raw paper industry the most headache. In the fierce competition environment, whether foreign or local original paper mill profits began to decline. But the large and medium-sized original paper mill expansion ambition is not reduced, it is expected that the next decade upstream raw paper industry will enter a more intense shuffling period.

Under the guidance of multiple policies of energy conservation, emission reduction and energy conservation and environmental protection, small and medium-sized original paper mills will have a more difficult life, and the original paper mills with strength will take the leading position. From this point of view to the carton factory is also an opportunity and a challenge. The opportunity is to develop more suppliers to reduce the cost of raw paper. The risk is that the vicious competition in the upstream will aggravate the impact on the stability of the supply chain. Carton mills need to pay close attention to the trend of upstream paper mills.

In terms of product trends, raw paper manufacturers have been developing and promoting low gram weight and high strength raw paper for the past ten years. Taking low-gram weight high-watt as an example, it is reported that nine dragons paper industry has developed 50g thin high-energy corrugated paper paper in the past few years, leading the industry. In the next ten years, the raw paper production will continue to develop in the direction of low gram weight and high strength, and the raw paper with special functions is also vigorously developed and promoted, such as golden phoenix paper industry and rongcheng paper industry featured moisture-proof raw paper will be more widely used.

Downstream packaging user industry: some industries into the maturity period, some industries began to shuffle

In terms of the demand of downstream end users for carton packaging, with the increase of consumers' environmental awareness and income in the past decade, green packaging products are gradually favored. This requires the product packaging in a more beautiful and user-friendly design, but also need to pay attention to the whole production and circulation link to low carbon environmental protection, and this aspect of corrugated cardboard box has an innate advantage, but also promote the development of flexible glue.

In addition to the changes in demand, the industries in which the packaging users are located are also undergoing great changes with the changes of economic society, with ups and downs.

From 2008 to 2013, influenced by national policies, the electronics industry, building pottery bathroom industry, furniture and appliances industry entered a crazy expansion period. This period as a supporting packaging industry, many enterprises in the carton industry specialized for the customer service of these industries, orders do not worry.

However, after entering 2014, the development of the above industries began to encounter bottlenecks due to the impact of the overall environment, and many famous enterprises even stopped production and closed down in 2015. In addition, the textile industry, shoes and clothing industry and other low-end manufacturing industries in the demographic dividend exhausted and other adverse factors, there is an obvious trend of relocation, leading to the closure of some enterprises, thus reducing the demand for carton packaging.

The e-commerce industry, logistics industry, agricultural products industry and other markets are maturing and rising, the corresponding carton orders overall show a rapid growth trend. The food and beverage industry is still one of the most important application markets of carton packaging industry in the past ten years.

It is worth mentioning that modern agriculture, the elderly supplies industry, intelligent home industry and other industries in the next decade will be vigorously developed, supporting the demand for cartons will also be vigorously developed, carton factory can be early layout to increase the development of such customers.

Carton industry: "small profit" era shuffle intensified, chaotic dispersion of the situation will improve

From the perspective of product quality, in the past decade, the overall trend of the corrugated box industry is: customers require it to be able to bear more load, more types of requirements; Paper to the high strength, low quantitative development, some customers use e-paper packaging than the original cardboard box costs around 35%, the cost advantage makes the fine corrugated has been more widely used; The substitution of commodity packaging for transport packaging leads to a higher demand for the fineness of carton printing.

From the perspective of product form, some basic carton factories have innovated in design and technology, producing exquisite supermarket shelves, display racks, furniture supplies, office supplies, paper toys, paper platforms, buffer materials, paper tube boxes, paper coffins and other products. Some carton factories also develop special function cartons to seek differentiation, such as moisture-proof cartons, fireproof cartons, waterproof cartons, nano preservation cartons, etc. In terms of policy support, the application of paper tape and wood is the main direction of government support in recent years.

From the point of view of production equipment and technology, high speed and high efficiency become the mainstream trend, affected by the policy of energy conservation and environmental protection, paperboard production energy conservation and consumption reduction technology change into a trend. Cold setting tile line technology research in the past decade did not get a breakthrough, but in the past two years, there are domestic manufacturers in the research and development of electromagnetic heating technology, the current stable speed has exceeded 80 meters/min, and is still in the continuous improvement, it is worth attention.

There is a more obvious trend is the strength of the carton factory began to increase the purchase of wide, high-speed tile line. With the domestic tile line breakthrough 2.5, 2.8 meters width threshold, is expected to promote in more domestic carton factories.

In terms of carton production equipment, printing press, die-cutting machine, stapling box machine, baler, etc., began to move from the main semi-automation to the full automation and intelligent transition. Printing press manufacturers more in the promotion of high-speed, multicolor, color accurate, high network wire water-based printing machine, ink manufacturers in the promotion of gloss, bright, quick dry products. The trend of connecting printing machines with die-cutting and sticky nail boxes has been more prominent since 2013.

In terms of secondary and auxiliary equipment, in recent years, due to the rising labor costs and difficulties in recruiting and other problems, more carton factories began to consider the purchase of baling machine, paper feeder, automatic plate hanging machine and other machinery.

From the perspective of enterprise development, the overall corrugated carton industry in the past decade is still relatively dispersed with overcapacity, but the division of labor mode of "centralized board, decentralized box" has been popularized to the whole country since the regions with more developed economy and carton production. At the same time, in the past decade, some qualified carton factories have achieved certain results by extending the industrial chain and continuously expanding the enterprise scale.

For example, zhejiang shengda group, based on the development of paper packaging, goes out of the industry, out of the region, and develops cross-industry economy with one industry as the main industry. After ten years of efforts, the company has developed into a group company in seven major industries, including household paper, papermaking, textile, chemical, steel structure, real estate and logistics. Zhejiang shangfeng group to paper packaging as the main business while the development of cement products, real estate and other industries. Zhejiang jingxing paper industry group and anhui shanying paper industry take papermaking as the main business, develop the papermaking industry with the advantages of papermaking, form the papermaking-paperboard-carton industrial chain, and obtain remarkable comprehensive economic strength. Hexing packaging, mei ying sen, shenzhen huali, Taiwan zhenglong, Japan union, international paper and other well-known enterprises also set up a number of carton printing enterprises in various provinces and cities in the country.

At the same time, some enterprises seeking transformation in the fierce competition in the printing field, with innate advantages, to paper packaging transformation, and this part of enterprises are more suitable for the production of miniature corrugated cartons and cartons. In addition, some downstream large groups of users even develop packaging and printing products, carton, carton and color printing combined to form a cardboard - carton - printing industry chain, such as Qingdao haier, Shanghai tobacco, concave and convex packaging.

In terms of the market competition of carton factories, in the past decade, large-scale collectivized enterprises have actively explored high-end customers, created an overall package plan supply system, and enhanced their core competitiveness. The general size of the secondary plant is generally large survival pressure, in the industry entry threshold is low, the price transparent chaos, the competitiveness of the gradual dilution. Three factories also face reshuffle, most of the survival is ok, part of the reasons for various reasons to gradually exit the market.

It is worth noting that since the economic development slowed down in 2013, the financing of the industry generally presents a tight state, and some of the top 50 packaging enterprises even went bankrupt due to capital chain break due to blind expansion and other reasons. According to statistics, in 2014, 54 well-known enterprises in the industry stopped production, of which 12 were confirmed to have gone bankrupt. The provinces with the largest number of enterprises in the industry were guangdong, jiangsu and zhejiang. The biggest reasons for the shutdown were mainly usury and private loan disputes.

In the past decade, especially in the last three years, the corrugated box industry "profit" era shuffle significantly intensified, the chaotic dispersion of the situation has been improved, but most people think that the industry has just started the deep shuffle period.

Looked from the policy level, on the one hand, for two or three years governments everywhere have small corresponding fiscal subsidies to clean production, environmental requirements gradually increase, on the other hand the next ten years developed around the policies and regulations for packaging and printing industry key regulatory emissions of volatile organic gas and waste water, the corresponding also improved the illegal punishment of environmental pollution. This a series of policy will cause certain impact to local area upstream and downstream of the market, such as guangdong dongguan since September 2014 execution of high-pressure &high-concentration &low-viscosity enterprise exit policy execution, is caused by the end of 2015 nearly 3 million tons of paper making local capacity, be careful cardboard-box factory operating risk arising from the policy change.

In the next decade, the small scale of most enterprises in the corrugated box industry will be improved, mergers, mergers and other events will become normal, the industrial structure adjustment will be accelerated. The development and maturity of new technologies will also have an impact on the development of the industry. For example, electromagnetic heating technology and high-speed digital printing machine will emerge in the next decade. Meanwhile, the application of intelligent equipment will also be vigorously developed in the next decade.

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